I attended an outstanding event in San Francisco today called the “1st Solar Symposium.” Essentially, the speakers explained the drivers of solar success in Germany (read feed-in tariffs), and discussed how to make solar big in the US, and namely the Southwestern US. The following are notes taken during the symposium:
(I heard the presentations will be posted here in the next couple days)

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First Speaker: Prof. Eicke Weber, Director / Fraunhofer-Institute ISE

“The Future of Solar Energy”

  • Eric was a professor @ UC Berkeley for 20 odd years in material science.
  • He says, the question is, how can German successes happen in California?

Weber answers question, why should we transform our energy economy?

  1. Climate change - over the past 450,000 years, global temperature and CO2 concentrations have been correlated. Our current 380PPM of CO2, takes us much higher than previous levels during this period, and it is scary to think what might happen if temperature follows the same trend as before. Weber showed something similar to the following graph from here:
  2. Oil crisis - Until recently, this was a secondary driver of creating a new energy economy, but now that prices have shot up so drastically, it has become the primary. Regardless of whether we have hit peak oil, or whatever, the rising prices mean we need to switch to renewables with predictable prices. Weber said: “The oil production will never keep up with the global needs”
  3. Geo-political instability of oil producing nations

By 2020, the world will need 20TW of energy and solar is the best future way to meet this demand.

He mentioned an idea that would place 6 3.3TW solar installations around the world to meet the 20TW demand (this would require six 340X340 kilometer squares of solar panels!).

Weber: “PV power is the most expensive renewable today, but will be the least expensive down the road.”
PV in the US costs about $.25/Kwh and about .45/Kwh in Germany.

Total PV power capacity installed last year: 2GW
Fraction installed in Germany - 1GW!
Fraction installed in US - 300MW.

Current majority of installed capacity is Silicon based PV:

  1. Singly crystal Silicon cells - high efficiency, but very pricey
  2. Poly/multi-crystalline Silicon cells - less efficient, but cheaper and easier to produce.

Reaching economies of scale to make solar cost competitive: “In order to get solar energy to be as cheap as fossil coal/oil plants, all we have to do is increase solar production to 100x what we do today.”

Grid parity: given technology improvements, and ramping up of production, should happen in 5-7 years! Already reached parity in some markets.

Silicon shortages: Si is the second most abundant element on earth, so it is not in shortage, but purified silicon is.
Solutions to Si shortages:
- Thin film solar (less efficient)
- Increased production of purified Si
- Thinner cells
- Upgraded metalurgical grades (dirty Si) to make solar cells
- Using highly efficient cells in concentrators

How to make photovoltaic systems happen in California/US:

  • Quota systems that force utilities to do solar
  • Rebate systems - good for idealists
  • Power of the feed-in tariff:
    The feed-in tariff gives everyone who invests a solid return on investment. With feed-in tariffs, it’s no longer just the idealists who want solar - anyone who wants to get a good return on investment can make a return! Weber’s CA/US feed-in proposal: 20 year guaranteed feed-in price, where only your production is metered, with no cap on total production.

Comment on Distributed vs. Utility-scale solar:

Utility-scale solar is great for sunny areas but not cloudy, while distributed can be used in cloudy places like Germany or San Francisco.

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Whew, I’ll get the rest of these notes up tomorrow… following is the rest of the lineup:

11.00 am           “Experiences with the German and European Market
Access Programs”
Gerhard Stryi-Hipp, Managing Director / German Solar Industry Association

11.30 am           “The US Prior to the 2008 Presidential Elections - Status and
Perspectives of Solar Promotion on a Federal Level”
Rhone Resch, President / SEIA, Washington D.C.
12.00 pm           Lunch
1.00 pm            “An US Company’s Experience with US German Cooperation - Benefits
of International Solar Partnerships”
Gunter Ziegenbalg / Managing Director, Signet GmbH

1.30 pm            “A German Way to Enter International Solar Markets”
Helmut Gehle / Sales Director, Solar Technologies, Schuco USA LP
2.00 pm            Coffee Break


Panel Discussion: “International Perspectives: What are the Most Promising Incentives to Develop the US Solar Market”

2.20 pm            Two Points of View
- V. John White, Executive Director / CEERT, Sacramento
- Adam Browning, Executive Director / The Vote Solar Initiative, San Francisco
3.00 pm            The Political Side
- Prof. Eicke Weber, Director / Fraunhofer-Institute ISE
- John L. Geesman, Former Commissioner / California Energy Commission
The Solar Associations’ Side
- Rhone Resch, President / SEIA
- Gerhard Stryi-Hipp, CEO / German Solar Industries Association
The Companies’ Side
- Suvi Sharma, President & CEO / Solaria Corp.
- Helmut Gehle, Sales Director, Solar Technologies / Schuco USA LP
The Solar Initiative Side
- Adam Browning, Executive Director / The Vote Solar Initiative, San Francisco
4.30 am            “California’s Leadership: Building an Environmentally and Economically
Sustainable Future”
Lt. Governor John Garamendi