Strive for green

I came across an interesting article in the New York Times today contrasting how Denmark and the United States have pursued energy policy since the 1970s. Here is a great excerpt from the article:

Unlike America, Denmark, which was so badly hammered by the 1973 Arab oil embargo that it banned all Sunday driving for a while, responded to that crisis in such a sustained, focused and systematic way that today it is energy independent. (And it didn’t happen by Danish politicians making their people stupid by telling them the solution was simply more offshore drilling.)

It is encouraging to see articles like this that indicate the United States is finally waking up to the reality that we need to transition away from fossil fuels in order to secure a prosperous future.

I attended an outstanding event in San Francisco today called the “1st Solar Symposium.” Essentially, the speakers explained the drivers of solar success in Germany (read feed-in tariffs), and discussed how to make solar big in the US, and namely the Southwestern US. The following are notes taken during the symposium:
(I heard the presentations will be posted here in the next couple days)

———————————————————

First Speaker: Prof. Eicke Weber, Director / Fraunhofer-Institute ISE

“The Future of Solar Energy”

• Eric was a professor @ UC Berkeley for 20 odd years in material science.

• He says, the question is, how can German successes happen in California?

Weber answers question, why should we transform our energy economy?

1. Climate change - over the past 450,000 years, global temperature and CO2 concentrations have been correlated. Our current 380PPM of CO2, takes us much higher than previous levels during this period, and it is scary to think what might happen if temperature follows the same trend as before. Weber showed something similar to the following graph from here:
   
2. Oil crisis - Until recently, this was a secondary driver of creating a new energy economy, but now that prices have shot up so drastically, it has become the primary. Regardless of whether we have hit peak oil, or whatever, the rising prices mean we need to switch to renewables with predictable prices. Weber said: “The oil production will never keep up with the global needs”
3. Geo-political instability of oil producing nations

By 2020, the world will need 20TW of energy and solar is the best future way to meet this demand.

He mentioned an idea that would place 6 3.3TW solar installations around the world to meet the 20TW demand (this would require six 340X340 kilometer squares of solar panels!).

Weber: “PV power is the most expensive renewable today, but will be the least expensive down the road.”
PV in the US costs about $.25/Kwh and about .45/Kwh in Germany.

Total PV power capacity installed last year: 2GW
Fraction installed in Germany - 1GW!
Fraction installed in US - 300MW.

Current majority of installed capacity is Silicon based PV:

1. Singly crystal Silicon cells - high efficiency, but very pricey
2. Poly/multi-crystalline Silicon cells - less efficient, but cheaper and easier to produce.

Reaching economies of scale to make solar cost competitive: “In order to get solar energy to be as cheap as fossil coal/oil plants, all we have to do is increase solar production to 100x what we do today.”

Grid parity: given technology improvements, and ramping up of production, should happen in 5-7 years! Already reached parity in some markets.

Silicon shortages: Si is the second most abundant element on earth, so it is not in shortage, but purified silicon is.
Solutions to Si shortages:
- Thin film solar (less efficient)
- Increased production of purified Si
- Thinner cells
- Upgraded metalurgical grades (dirty Si) to make solar cells
- Using highly efficient cells in concentrators

How to make photovoltaic systems happen in California/US:

• Quota systems that force utilities to do solar
• Rebate systems - good for idealists
• Power of the feed-in tariff:
  The feed-in tariff gives everyone who invests a solid return on investment. With feed-in tariffs, it’s no longer just the idealists who want solar - anyone who wants to get a good return on investment can make a return! Weber’s CA/US feed-in proposal: 20 year guaranteed feed-in price, where only your production is metered, with no cap on total production.

Comment on Distributed vs. Utility-scale solar:

Utility-scale solar is great for sunny areas but not cloudy, while distributed can be used in cloudy places like Germany or San Francisco.

———————————————————

Whew, I’ll get the rest of these notes up tomorrow… following is the rest of the lineup:

11.00 am           “Experiences with the German and European Market
Access Programs”
Gerhard Stryi-Hipp, Managing Director / German Solar Industry Association

11.30 am           “The US Prior to the 2008 Presidential Elections - Status and
Perspectives of Solar Promotion on a Federal Level”
Rhone Resch, President / SEIA, Washington D.C.
12.00 pm           Lunch
1.00 pm            “An US Company’s Experience with US German Cooperation - Benefits
of International Solar Partnerships”
Gunter Ziegenbalg / Managing Director, Signet GmbH

1.30 pm            “A German Way to Enter International Solar Markets”
Helmut Gehle / Sales Director, Solar Technologies, Schuco USA LP
2.00 pm            Coffee Break

Panel Discussion: “International Perspectives: What are the Most Promising Incentives to Develop the US Solar Market”

2.20 pm            Two Points of View
- V. John White, Executive Director / CEERT, Sacramento
- Adam Browning, Executive Director / The Vote Solar Initiative, San Francisco
3.00 pm            The Political Side
- Prof. Eicke Weber, Director / Fraunhofer-Institute ISE
- John L. Geesman, Former Commissioner / California Energy Commission
The Solar Associations’ Side
- Rhone Resch, President / SEIA
- Gerhard Stryi-Hipp, CEO / German Solar Industries Association
The Companies’ Side
- Suvi Sharma, President & CEO / Solaria Corp.
- Helmut Gehle, Sales Director, Solar Technologies / Schuco USA LP
The Solar Initiative Side
- Adam Browning, Executive Director / The Vote Solar Initiative, San Francisco
4.30 am            “California’s Leadership: Building an Environmentally and Economically
Sustainable Future”
Lt. Governor John Garamendi

Tonight, a good friend sent this article about Obama’s vision for making Nevada a major renewable energy producer. I went to high school in Nevada up at Lake Tahoe, and I still visit my family there whenever I have the opportunity. It is great to hear that Obama, who Strive for green is enthusiastically rooting for, sees the potential for Nevada to become a major part of future US energy independence.

In the article, I really liked reading this statement from Obama:

“When John F. Kennedy decided that we were going to go put a man on the moon, he didn’t put a bounty out for some rocket scientist to win,” Obama said. “He put the full resources of the United States government behind the project and called on the ingenuity and innovation of the American people, not just in the private sector but also in the public sector.”

At the end of the article, there is a mention that the BLM (Bureau of Land Management) is placing a 22 month moratorium on any further solar development on its lands in order to do environmental assessments. I’m all for making sure sensitive land is protected, but 22 months!? I

Maybe the moratorium is the work of the Bush appointed director of the BLM Jim Caswell - based on information found during a quick search, he is not the type of guy you would expect to be friendly to alternative energy projects. Maybe its for “good” reasons, but at the same time there have been no shortage of ill-intentioned environmental acts under the Bush administration.

In any case, Strive for green can’t waint for Obama to win!

A personal message from the author:

Since October of ‘07, I have been involved in a green marketing campaign. My passion lies in creating and using technology to solve problems, but after graduating from UC Berkeley, I decided that it would be an important first step to understand how people perceive environmental problems and how to reach them with solutions. My focus over the last two years developing and marketing an internet startup and a green marketing campaign has brought me to a point where I feel confident that I have developed a solid core of marketing knowledge and experience.

Now I find myself considering the future of the United States, and what I see are two possible scenarios:

1. Maintain the status-quo:
   We as a nation proceed in the same direction we have been for decades now, and continue to be a nation focused on irresponsibly mass-consuming, and relying on foreign sources of oil. Given that the marginal cost of extracting additional quantities of fossil fuels will continue to climb along with global demand, this scenario results in the United States and its citizens essentially going bankrupt. We are already seeing the first signs of this scenario manifest in rising energy and product prices. If this happens, pretty much any career path has a dismal future, and we will find ourselves scrambling desperately to keep the country running.
2. Become energy-independent:
   It is no mystery that the American lifestyle is highly dependent on oil - in the united States, we consume the energy equivalent of 8 tons of oil per person per year, while countries like Japan use about half that amount, and Peruvians use just 1/16th what the average US citizen does (Earthtrends). Every day, we import about 13 million of the 21 million barrells of the oil we consume, and at current prices a basic calculation shows we are sending about (13,000,000 barrells * $130/barrell) = $1,690,000,000 dollars abroad each day (CIA world fact book)!

   Beyond the pure insanity of how much money we are sending away, using oil contriubutes to a whole host of environmental problems, not the least of which is global climate change. So in this scenario, we wake up as a country, and elect leaders with the vision and determination to make the United States energy independent. In this future, developing renewable sources of energy like solar and wind become the major drivers of our economy. We simplify our lives and come to realize that we can live great lives without buying and consuming endlessly. I don’t know about you, but this future sounds pretty good, and full of opportunity.

Considering these two scenarios, I have decided to set my sights on exploring and pursuing opportunities in renewable energy. And if the second scenario or anything close to it happens, there will be endless opportunities. I get excited thinking about developing products and businesses that will not only make a profit, but will also help this nation become energy independent, its citizens safer, and the environment healthier! I have always been captivated by technology and passionate about the environment, and what better place to combine these interestes than renewable energy. What exactly I do next is uncertain, but it should be an interesting journey!

- Nicholaus K. Harris, June 17th, 2008